Report怎么写:澳大利亚葡萄酒业

Report怎么写:澳大利亚葡萄酒业

 

This report mainly analyzes the whole Australian markets’ sales and Jack’s Cellar Pty’s sales to do forecasting for the company. Data about these analysis is from this company and the abs website. Theforecasting is done by the methods of Winters Exponential Smoothing, Decomposition, Autoregressive models and seasonal ARIMA.The seasonal ARIMA goes best in all these methods. We construct Seasonal ARIMA model as ARIMA (0,0,1) (1, 0, 1 )4for wine and ARIMA（2,1,2）（0,1,1）4 for brandy. Depending on the seasonal ARIMA model, we get the prediction for 2013. The results show that it is impossible for a growth of 7.5%, but some thing still can be done to increase the growth rate. Since the consumer behavior is important to the sales, so the company can try to divide the markets into two parts depend on the type of involvement of consumers and then do proper pricing policy to different type of markets. 

 

Australia’s wine industry begins early. It was 1788 when the first vineyard was planted in. since then, this agricultural kept developing successful, which achieve to employs 30 000 Australians (ABS Census data) and contributes $5.5 billion to the nation's economy. Many commercial institutes feed on this industry. As the development of Australia’s wine industry goes on, it begins to expend to other part of the world. The scale of this industry makes Australia a wine export leader. The alcoholic beverages industry has undergone substantial changes in the last three decades. More clearly to say, the wine industry is undergoing changes because of the economic environment, the policy of governments and some other factors. So it is important to forecast the sales of the total industry and of some companies, or the industry and the companies may goes into depts. Also, in forecasting the sales, it is also convenient to find which things may affect the sales of wine. As the common sense, the wine industry can be affected by many factors. The most important ones can be current regulations, government policies, economic circumstances and its consumers. So the data analysis can also dig out how can these qualitative and quantities factors affects. 

 

Jack’s Cellar Pty, Ltd is a company that sells all types of domestic Wine and Brandy in Australia, so it is important to get some information and forecasting before they do some decisions in these complicated situation. To make the production decisions, they should analysis the whole markets’ sales and their own sales depending on the forecasting models. Also combining the results of data analysis with the qualitative factors such as the current regulations, government policies, economic circumstances and its consumers is as well as irreplaceable and determinative to the decision.

 

The Australia wine industry is the leader of the world. But in the last three decades, it has undergone substantial changes because of the economic environment, the policy of governments and some other factors. So it is important to forecast the sales of the total industry and of some companies, or the industry and the companies may goes into depts. Jack’s Cellar Pty, Ltd is a company that sells all types of domestic Wine and Brandy in Australia, so it is important to get some information and forecasting before they do some decisions in these complicated situation.