代写 TRANSPORT ECONOMICS assignment

  • 100%原创包过,高质代写&免费提供Turnitin报告--24小时客服QQ&微信:120591129
  • 代写 TRANSPORT ECONOMICS assignment

     
    TRANSPORT ECONOMICS
    Assignment 1: Demand forecasting
    Instructions:
    The assignment assesses your understanding of quantitative transport demand forecasting
    techniques. Assignment 1 is worth 20 marks. This assignment is an individual
    assignment. Thus, you need to finish the assignment independently.
    The due date is the end of Week 5 (21 August 2016). Submission extensions are not
    normally granted, except for other unexpected reasons. If you need an extension you
    must apply electronically to the course coordinator via email before the submission due
    date. In the application you should specify a date on which you plan to submit the
    assignment. This date should be within one week from the posted submission date. Any
    requests for extensions exceeding seven days must be submitted via RMIT’s special
    consideration process. In the absence of a granted extension, late submissions will be
    automatically penalized by 10% per working day up to a maximum of 10 working days.
    Problem description:
    The date set in the spread sheet below contains:
     data about the annual quantity of total Victoria road freight during the period
    fiscal year 1 to 30. This variable is the dependent variable, and is denoted as Y.
     data for the same number of years on three other variables (X 1 , X 2 , X 3 ) that are
    associated with the dependent variable, and are proposed to be relevant in
    forecasting future values of the dependent variable. You are required to use the
    Microsoft Excel package (the data analysis section) to finish the specific tasks
    below.

    代写 TRANSPORT ECONOMICS assignment
    Year
    Total road
    freight (Y)
    Average
    annual
    transport fuel
    index (X1)
    Estimated
    total weekly
    earnings
    (X2)
    Retail
    turnover
    (X3)
    1  13,780  38.6  323  $13,154.4
    2  14,540  40.7  344  $13,787.6
    3  15,740  44.0  366  $15,430.2
    4  15,900  48.7  387  $17,127.5
    5  17,130  52.8  408  $18,438.9
    6  18,400  54.2  431  $19,849.8
    7  19,460  58.0  466  $21,064.7
    8  19,040  62.1  488  $20,849.4
    9  18,760  63.6  504  $21,727.5
    10  19,850  65.3  511  $22,513.1
    11  20,330  67.1  529  $23,144.8
    12  21,970  68.9  552  $24,705.9
    13  23,290  71.0  563  $28,285.0
    14  24,220  71.9  572  $27,645.9
    15  25,910  71.5  598  $29,146.4
    16  27,290  70.0  602  $31,714.3
    17  28,620  74.1  614  $34,417.1
    18  29,210  78.9  637  $35,405.2
    19  30,740  79.3  674  $39,305.4
    20  32,270  81.2  723  $41,975.1
    21  33,970  82.0  761  $45,744.2
    22  35,190  84.8  790  $47,263.5
    23  36,430  90.3  815  $48,574.4
    24  37,650  91.6  837  $51,661.3
    25  39,310  95.9  862  $54,538.7
    26  38,570  95.0  886  $57,593.3
    27  39,200  95.1  958  $59,996.5
    28  40,200  97.0  961  $62,754.9
    29  41,730  100.0  998  $64,156.1
    30  42,590  102.0  1046  $64,388.3
    a. Source: BITRE (2014) Road freight estimates update Information sheet
    Table 2.3 Estimates of national road freight: Victoria (billion tkm) p. 6
    b. Current value of GDP per year obtained from ABS Catalogue 5206.001
    Key aggregates by summing in each fiscal year the four quarterly values at
    3
    current prices for GDP. Series type Trend; Data type DERIVED.
    c. Source: ABS Catalogue 6401.03 CPI Index numbers by group by capital
    city accessed November 26 2014. Base 2011-12 = 100.0
    d. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Catalogue 6302.001 Average
    Weekly Earnings
    e. Source: Australian Burea of Statistics Time Series Workbook
    6291.0.55.001 Labour Force, Australia, Detailed - Electronic Delivery Table
    02. Labour force status by State, Capital city / Balance of state and Sex.
    Figures in Table are average of monthly figures for each year.
    f. Data from ABS Catalogue 8501.03.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, by State.
    Annual totals obtained by adding monthly reported values.
    g. Source: 1986, 1991, 1993, 1994 from ABS Household Estimates Australia
    1986, 1991-1994 Cataogue #3229.0. 1994/5 to 2011/12 data from ABS
    Catalogue 4130.0DO.003201112 Table 18 VIC Households Selected
    Household Characteristics. Data for 2006 and 2011 number of Victorian
    households from Profile ID taken from ABS Census of Population and
    Housing: http://profile.id.com.au/australia/households?WebID=110 accessed
    July 17 2014.
    Required tasks:
    Task 1: Input the data set into Excel. (2 marks)
    Task 2: Present a scatter plot including all variables (dependent and independent
    variables), and briefly comment on their trends (movement over time). (2 marks)
    Task 3: Draw scatter plots between the dependent variable and each of the independent
    variables and briefly comment on them. (4 marks)
    Task 4: Run the linear regression function in Excel between the dependent variable and
    each independent variable. Analyse and comment on the outputs based on the adjusted R 2
    values and the coefficients. (4 marks)
    4
    Task 5: Run the following multivariate linear regression models:
    Dependent variable  Independent variables
    Model 1  Y  X1, X2
    Model 2  Y  X1, X3
    Model 3  Y  X2, X3
    Model 4  Y  X1, X2, X3
    Report the outputs and give the estimated equations, conduct the analysis as in Task 4,
    and then select the best forecasting equation from those generated in Tasks 4 and 5 based
    on the adjusted R 2 values. (4 marks)
    Task 6: Forecast the values of the dependent variable using the model chosen in Task 5
    for Year 31 to 35 and briefly explain the results of these forecasts (the forecast
    independent variables are given below; use the relevant values to forecast the Y values).
    (4 marks)
    Year  Dependent variable  Independent variables
    Y  X1  X2  X3
    31  104.1  1095  $65,593.3
    32  105.8  1124  $74,396.5
    33  106.9  1183  $76,754.9
    34  108.1  1203  $79,156.1
    35  109.7  1245  $81,388.3

    代写 TRANSPORT ECONOMICS assignment