·         This assignment comprises 15% of the assessment for ETF5952.This is an individual, NOT a syndicate, assignment.  On the Assignment Cover Sheet, read the references to plagiarism and collusion from University Statute 4.1. Part III – Academic Misconduct.
·         Deadline: 5pm on Friday, 22September, 2017
·         Submission:
1.       Your assignment must be typed and you must submit a printed “hard copy” with an Assignment Cover Sheet (from the “ASSIGNMENTS” section of Moodle).  Submit it in your class/tutorial before the due time, or submit it to your tutor’s mailbox, 5^th floor H Block.  For each day that it is late, 10% of Assignment’s allocated marks will be deducted. Do not submit your assignment in a folder and stapleA4 pages.
2.       Name your assignment: Surname-Initials_A2.docx or Surname-Initials_A2.pdf (eg. Trump-DJ_A2.docx) and Upload this file to Moodle (as a backup) – as follows:
·         Go to the “ASSIGNMENTS” section. 
·         Click on the “ASSIGNMENT 2” link to upload. 
·         The following message will appear momentarily, “File uploaded successfully.”
(To later confirm your upload was successful, go to the “ASSIGNMENTS” section and click. On the “Assignment 2” uploading link.  The uploaded file’s name will be shown.)
Note: DO NOT submit any Excel files.  You may upload ONE file only.Retain your marked assignment until after the publication of final results for this unit.
·         Your tutor will NOT print or mark your assignment from Moodle.
·         You are required to
o   Answer all questions.
o   Write your answer succinctly and include big tables and figures as appendices with appropriate labels. (If you have trouble pasting figures and tables in your document, you could print them out separately.)
·         If you find possible typos or mistakes in this Assignment, please contact a lecturer or tutors to clarify the questions for you. Also, if you have any other questions, please use consultation time.
 
 
 
Plagiarism
Intentional plagiarism amounts to cheating in terms of University Statute 4.1. Part III – Academic Misconduct.
Plagiarism: Plagiarism means to take and use another person’s ideas and or manner of expressing them and to pass these off as one’s own by failing to give appropriate acknowledgement.  This includes material from any source, staff, students or the Internet – published and unpublished works.
Collusion: Collusion is unauthorised collaboration with another person or persons.
Where there are reasonable grounds for believing that intentional plagiarism or collusion has occurred, this
will be reported to the Chief Examiner, who may disallow the work concerned by prohibiting assessment or
refer the matter to the Faculty Manager.
 
 
 
 
QUESTION 1             (25 points and each item 5 points)                                                                                        
Suppose that Australian government conducts a survey and collects 400 observations of works in Australia. We are informed that 36 works are unemployed (UN) and 150 works have 16 years of education or higher (BA). We also know 220 works have 15 years of education less and are employed. Let EN denote an event of being employed and let HS denote an event of having 15 years of education less. To answer questions in 1.2-1.5 below, use 2 decimal places.
 
1.       Obtain a frequency table (contingent table)
 

	EN	UN	Total
HS
BA
Total

 
2.       Obtain a joint probability table
 

	EN	UN	Total
HS
BA
Total

 
3.       It the table in Question 1.2, interpret the number in a cell of (Total, UN). [less than 20 words.]
4.       Obtain the following quantities
·         P(UN|HS) =
·         P(UN|BA) =
Explain these quantities (less than 30 words).
5.       Obtain the following quantities
·         P(UN|HS) P(HS)=
·         P(UN) P(HS)=
Compare two values and explain the result (less than 30 words).
 
 
QUESTION 2 (10 points)
 
Implement the following procedure:
·         Using an Excel function, RAND(), generate 100 uniform random variables. 
·         Transform those random variables to binary random variables taking 1 if a uniform random variable is strictly greater than 0.5 and 0 otherwise. (note: StatTools  can create “dummy” variables, see StatTools->Data Utilities->Dummy).
Report an average of 100 binary variables up to 2 decimal places and compare it with the population mean (less than 30 words).  
 
 
 QUANTITATIVE METHODS  定量分析 计量作业 assignment 代写
 
 
        
QUESTION 3(20 points and 5 points for each)
To answer this question, use an Excel file, jq17_provisional_pi_time_series.xlsx, which is provided by Australian government.  We are interested in quarterly data (not yearly) the number of bankruptcies of VIC state, which is reported in the sheet of “Bankrupties” and covers the periods of 1986:Q3-2017:Q2, where Q3 means the third quarter and Q2 means the second one. Use 3 decimal places.
1.       User the data from 1986:Q3 to 2017:Q2 and obtain its mean, variance, max and min.
2.       Let X be that the number of bankruptcies and assume that X follows Poisson distribution. Using Excel, fill out the following table (i.e., obtain probabilities and cumulative distribution function):

X = x	Prob.	CDF
100
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200

3.       Keep the assumption that X follows Poisson distribution and obtain
·         P(1000 <X1050)=
·         P(500x<1000) =
4.       Comparing historical data and the predictions under the Poisson assumption and discuss whether the assumption is suitable for this data (less than 50 words).
 
QUESTION 4(45 points and 9 points for each)
Let X be follow normal distribution with mean 21 and standard deviation 3.5, i.e., X ~ N(21, 3.5). To answer questions, use Table for normal distribution in Moodle with some approximation. Use 4 decimal places for your answer (not necessarily for the process of obtaining your answer).
 
1.       Obtain P(X < 18).
2.       Obtain P(29 <X).
3.       Obtain P(10 < X < 20).
4.       Obtain x such that P(X < x) = 0.9394.
5.       Obtain x such that P(X < x) = 0.0606.
 
 
 
FEEDBACK FOR THIS ASSIGNMENT
will be provided
·         by the detailed solutions on Moodle.
·         by tutors indicating areas on the submitted work where mistakes have been made and referring students to consult the solutions on Moodle.
If you still have difficulties, then you should consult a staff member.
(See the “STAFF and CONSULTATION” section on Moodle.)
 
Troubleshooting
·         When tasks are undertaken in StatTools and Excel, unseen tables or worksheets are created in the background.  For example, when a graph is created, the underlying coordinates of the points being plotted may be stored in an unseen worksheet.
So, if you are using both StatTools and Excel (eg, Pivot Tables) on a set of data, occasionally some of these background items may conflict and prevent you from performing your task.  If this occurs, use a fresh copy of your data file for the failed tasks.
·         If StatTools gives an error when you attempt to place output in the “Active Sheet”, just place the output in a “New Worksheet in Active Workbook”.
 
Excel Tips
 
Cell comments               
·         A cell with a red triangle in the upper right-hand corner contains a comment.  The comment may be read by hovering the cursor over that cell.
To Copy a selected part of your spreadsheet and Paste it into a Word document
·         Select the required cells and click on the “Copy” icon.
·         Go to Microsoft Word and Paste the selection by clicking on the downwards triangle of the Paste icon.  Select Paste Special/Picture (Enhanced Metafile).
An alternative to the procedures above is to press the “Print Scrn” key when your spreadsheet is on display.  This captures an image of your screen, which you may then Paste into a Word document.  Use Microsoft Word’s “Crop” tool  to reduce the image to your desired selection.
To alter the page margins, in order to optimise the use of a page before printing it
·         Select /Page Layout/Margins at the top of the screen (Excel or Word).
To print in “Landscape”  view,rather than in “Portrait” view
·         Select Page Layout/Orientation/Landscape before printing.
To print the gridlines which border the cells of a spreadsheet
·      From the top of the screen, select Page Layout/Sheet Options/Gridlines/Print
To print the Row (“1”, “2”, “3”, etc) and Column (“A”, “B”, “C”, etc) headings
·      From the top of the screen, select Page Layout/Sheet Options/Headings/Print
When you print all, or part, of your spreadsheet, Row and Column headings will be printed.
If you are unable to make Excel display the Row and Column headings clearly on your printout, then write them on by hand.
To sort a data set
For example, to sort by Salary the data in Questionnaire Data.xlsx(Week 1 lecture),
·         select the cells of the entire data set (A1:G31) and click on “Data” at the top of the screen.
·         Under “Sort & Filter”, select “Sort”.
·         In the Sort dialogue box, ensure that you tick “My data has headers”.
·         In the “Sort by” drop down menu, select Salary.  OK.
The entire data set (not just the Salary column) will now be sorted by Salary.
 
Word Tips
To capture a screen image & “Paste” it into Word
To capture the image (any image, eg, an Excel page, an internet page, a photo, etc) currently displayed on your screen,
·         press the Print Scrn button on your keyboard.
·         go to the desired location in your Word document.  Hold the Ctrl key and press the letter “V”.
The “Snipping Tool” (available via START button/Programs/Accessories in many Windows versions) is very useful too.
To copy a table or graph from Excel& “Paste” it as an image into Word
·         Select, then “Copy” the table or graph in Excel.
·         Go to the desired location in your Word document.  From the top of the screen, select “Paste”, “Paste Special”, then “Picture (Enhanced Metafile”).
To trim (“Crop”) an image in Word
·         Select View/Toolbars/Picture and click on the “Crop” icon:
·         Apply the “Crop” icon to the image.
 
To arrange graphs and pictures within a “Word” document
Graphs (eg, from Excel) and pictures can be more manageable if you insert a table into Word and place your graphs and pictures (and text) into cells of the table.

 

 QUANTITATIVE METHODS  定量分析 计量作业 assignment 代写